Appendix 2: Detailed summary of Growth and Demand pressures 2026/27 to 2029/30
Adult Social Care & Public Health Growth and Demand Pressures
Growth and demand pressures are the increasing costs and service needs the council faces. These pressures are driven by factors like inflation, the cost-of-living crisis, and a growing and aging population. These pressures put a strain on our budget, particularly in adult social care and children's services.
| Ref | Description | 2026/27 (£) | 2027/28 (£) | 2028/29 (£) | 2029/30 (£) | Total (£) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Contractual inflation for intermediate care service reablement contracts - funded through Better Care Fund | 412,053 | 412,053 | 412,053 | 412,053 | 1,648,212 |
| 2 | Pay award and increments for posts - funded through the Better Care Fund | 196,005 | 196,005 | 196,005 | 196,005 | 784,020 |
| 3 | Housing 21 contractual inflation | 392,564 | 414,463 | 429,726 | 322,764 | 1,559,517 |
| 4 | Full year effect of prior years’ staffing restructures – adult social care operational finance team | 190,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190,000 |
| 5 | Reversal of one-off staffing resources to provide support to existing teams and delivery of the adult social care continuous improvement programme | (89,178) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (89,178) |
| 6 | Additional resources within commissioning structure | 548,019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 548,019 |
| 7 | Additional resources within workforce & assurance structure | 333,432 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333,432 |
| 8 | Enablement service structure to support delivery of savings | 106,207 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 106,207 |
| 9 | Advocacy contract - additional demand & inflationary pressures | 113,929 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 113,929 |
| 10 | Resources to support pilot with existing learning disabilities supported living providers to move towards an outcome based approach | 56,523 | (28,262) | (28,261) | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Social care increase in demand pressures (inflow/ attrition) | 10,472,331 | 6,755,336 | 7,263,941 | 7,815,494 | 32,307,102 |
| 12 | Additional service user contributions based on net inflow of service users, price increases (uplifts) and benefit changes | (2,563,164) | (2,574,522) | (2,769,142) | (3,449,238) | (11,356,066) |
| 13 | Health contributions - Section 117/ Continuing Health Care/ part health funded | (2,139,272) | (2,156,850) | (2,319,608) | (2,887,567) | (9,503,297) |
| 14 | Deferred payments income | (200,000) | (100,000) | 0 | 0 | (300,000) |
| 15 | Social care increase in existing service user placements costs following strength-based reviews | 8,203,259 | 6,766,462 | 7,253,788 | 7,776,421 | 29,999,930 |
| 16 | Uplift in care provider fees | 5,541,009 | 5,330,691 | 5,782,283 | 6,270,079 | 22,924,061 |
| 17 | Transforming care programme costs relating to service users care | 130,357 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 130,357 |
| 18 | Inflationary increase for Section 117 mental health service users care costs | 72,105 | 74,989 | 77,989 | 81,108 | 306,191 |
| 19 | Income shortfall relating to Integrated Care Board joint funding arrangements | 729,376 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 729,376 |
| 20 | Public Health grant increase to meet pressures in sexual health services and the need to provide sustainable funding for the young people’s health and wellbeing service | 211,300 | 214,745 | 219,040 | 223,421 | 868,506 |
| 21 | Pay award and increments for posts funded through Public Health grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | 50,000 | 50,000 | 200,000 |
| Total Adult Social Care and Public Health | 22,766,855 | 15,355,110 | 16,567,814 | 16,810,540 | 71,500,319 | |